There are some interesting but risky players that have solid matchups. Do you chance Rex Grossman against the Patriots? Do you sit Ahmad Bradshaw after a poor Week 13 performance? Many believe you don't bench your studs, but has Peyton Hillis been a stud? Do you start him against the Steelers? It's fantasy playoff time and we can't afford mistakes.
Exploit
QB Rex Grossman, Redskins (vs. Patriots)
We saw "Bad Rex" last week when Grossman threw for 221 yards, zero TDs and one interception. However, in Weeks 11 and 12 he did average 303 yards for two TDs and 1.5 interceptions and despite the fact I'm not a big fan of his, he has value this week. The Patriots are allowing 322.3 yards and one TD per game to opposing quarterbacks over the past few weeks, so he should have a great yardage game. In larger leagues or two-QB leagues, he can exploit this.
RB Michael Bush, Raiders (at Packers)
Bush (10-18-0 rushing and 3-27-0 receiving on six targets) had his first bad game since Week Six but it was a tough matchup against one of the better defenses. While there is no word on Darren McFadden (foot), Bush has a great matchup. The Packers are allowing 137.5 yards from scrimmage and one TD to opposing backs the past four weeks, putting them in the bottom half of fantasy points allowed to running backs. Bush can exploit this and post elite numbers.
RB C.J. Spiller, Bills (at Chargers)
Spiller (14-83-1 rushing and 3-19-0 receiving on six targets) has a two-game average of 21 utilizations for 86 yards from scrimmage and 0.5 TDs. Since being the overall ninth pick in the draft in 2010, Spiller has mostly disappointed but he's finally posting relevant fantasy numbers. As a dual-threat back against the Chargers who, over the past four weeks, are allowing 190.5 yards from scrimmage and 0.8 TDs to opposing backs, Spiller should have a big game and look for him to exploit this.
WR Andre Johnson, Texans (vs. Bengals)
Johnson (hamstring) suffered an injury to his other hamstring, his left one, but the injury is supposedly not severe and he could play. If he's able to play, he's facing a Bengals team that can't stop opposing WRs. They're allowing 163.5 yards and 1.8 TDs per game the past four weeks to the position. If he plays he can exploit this. However, if he sits, you can give Kevin Walter (1-12-0 on four targets) and Jacoby Jones, who didn't catch a pass this past week, a shot. Be careful though, as neither player has great upside, especially with rookie QB T.J. Yates at the helm.
WR Davone Bess, Dolphins, (vs. Eagles)
Bess (4-27-1 on seven targets) now has two TDs in the last three games, but with a three-game average of 2.7 catches for 27 yards and 0.7 TDs on 4.7 targets he also has great risk. Those two TDs look attractive when your options are limited and the Eagles are allowing 195.8 yards and 1.8 TDs per game to opposing WRs the past four weeks. They're in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to receivers and in larger leagues, if you need a body, Bess can exploit this.
WR Jabar Gaffney, Redskins (vs. Patriots)
Gaffney (0-0-0 on three targets) said his poor performance had more to do with Jets CB Darrelle Revis than anything else. For the season, Gaffney averages 3.8 catches for 55.4 yards and 0.25 TDs. He's facing the Patriots this week, a weekly start for some players that normally sit. With the Patriots allowing 238.5 yards and one TD per game to the position the past four weeks, Gaffney can exploit this, and in larger leagues he warrants consideration.
TE Ed Dickson, Ravens (vs. Colts)
Dickson (3-47-0 on four targets) would be a serviceable fantasy TE but Dennis Pitta (1-26-0 on two targets) sees an average of 3.5 targets per game, cannibalizing the position. Dickson has six games of 45 yards or more, so larger leagues need to take notice. The Colts are allowing 57.3 yards and 0.7 TDs per game to the position and last week, four of QB Joe Flacco's 10 completions went to the TEs. The same could happen this week if the team utilizes another run-heavy attack. Against the Colts, why wouldn't they? Indy can be run against and Dickson could exploit this off of play-action.
Avoid
QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (vs. Browns)
Big Ben had his first multi-TD game since Week Eight on Sunday but he threw for only 176 yards and has only five TDs in four games. It's not that he's a bad QB, it's that he hasn't been posting the numbers you need in a playoff run and the Browns' defense plays opposing QBs well. Over the past four weeks, they're allowing only 198.3 yards and 0.5 TDs per game, easily making them one of the best in that span. If you can, avoid this matchup.
RB Peyton Hillis, Browns (at Steelers)
Hillis (hip) isn't 100 percent but is expected to start. The problem with that is he's facing a Steelers team that is playing great the past four weeks against running backs. They're allowing only 101.7 yards from scrimmage and zero TDs to the position, making this a difficult matchup for Hillis to exploit. If you can, sit him.
RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (vs. Falcons)
Stewart (14-80-1 rushing and 2-19-0 receiving) continues to perform well and has a three-game average of 14.7 utilizations for 96.7 yards from scrimmage and 0.3 TDs. He can be erratic, however, so there's risk — and with the Falcons coming to town, his risk is upgraded. The Falcons are allowing 96.5 yards from scrimmage and 0.5 TDs to opposing backs and with Stewart in a time-share with DeAngelo Williams, you might want to avoid this matchup.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (at Cowboys)
Bradshaw (11-38-0 rushing and 2-9-0 on five targets) returned after a four-game absence and was not impressive. However, he had no setbacks and will be ready to time-share with Brandon Jacobs. He doesn't have great history against the Cowboys outside one game in recent history. And Dallas is allowing only 114.8 yards from scrimmage and 0.5 TDs to opposing backs the past four weeks, making them one of the league's best right now. If you can, avoid this matchup.
WR Reggie Wayne, Colts (at Ravens)
Wayne (5-55-0 on six targets) has a three-game average of 4.3 catches for 63.3 yards and 0.3 TDs on 6.3 targets. However, he has only two TDs this season, so you're only gaining injury fill-in numbers. Wayne's usefulness, even as an injury fill-in, has to be questioned. Without QB Peyton Manning, he probably will not see many opportunities, if any, against the Ravens. They're allowing 129 yards and 0.3 TDs per game to the position over the past four weeks. As always, they're one of the best and if you can, avoid this matchup.
TE Joel Dreessen, Texans (at Bengals)
Dreessen (1-3-1 on one target) only has two catches for 23 yards the past two games but does have two TDs on those catches. There's the chance rookie QB T.J. Yates uses the position as a check-down option but Owen Daniels is still the primary tight end. While Dreessen is a TD vulture, the Bengals are allowing only 26.5 yards and no TDs to opposing TEs the past four weeks. That makes them an elite defense at defending the position. This isn't the week to get cute; avoid this matchup.
TE Jake Ballard, Giants (at Cowboys)
Earlier this week, I said that Ballard (3-47-0 on six targets) has been serviceable. His two-game average of 3-47-0 on 5.5 targets teases enough to warrant consideration in larger leagues based on the matchup. This isn't the week of a good matchup. The past four weeks, the Cowboys are allowing 39.5 yards and no TDs per game to the position. That makes them one of the best against TEs in that time. In larger leagues, you should look elsewhere and avoid this matchup.
Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/12/07/week-14-matchups-to-exploit-or-avoid
New York Giants Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins New York Jets New England Patriots Denver Broncos
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