Backing struggling teams can have its merits

This week's column deals with unpopular teams, what it takes to bet them and why they can be a good bet. If you like to just wager on favorites with marquee names ... well, that is a fun way to live, and I have no problem with that. If being entertained while potentially making money is the goal, you're not going to be betting clubs like the Chiefs, Colts or Seahawks — teams that all have had their struggles early this season.

However, an open mind and a willingness to overlook some warts can go a long way for a handicapper.

Consider the cases of Kansas City, Indianapolis and Seattle in Week Three. All were underdogs on the final Sunday of September. There was little love for them.

And all three covered.

The Seahawks won outright at home vs. the Cardinals. The Colts gave the Steelers all they could handle in a prime-time defeat on "Football Night in America." The Chiefs had a chance to tie or win the game late at San Diego.

San Diego! Yes, I see you muttering there in the back. The Chargers were 14-point favorites.

They escaped by a field goal.

"That Norv Turner!" you say. Well, the Chargers did win. He did his job, accomplished his goal.

So think about yourself for a moment. What's your goal when it comes to getting a bet down? Are you a fan of the club you are betting? Do you handicap with your heart and not your head?

If these things apply — no need for you to raise your hand, you back there in the Tom Brady jersey and the Pat Patriot foam finger; we can tell you love New England — you view the games a little differently than a professional bettor likely does. Professionals, "wiseguys," "sharps" or whatever you call them, are in the game to make a profit, and that's all. It's a bottom-line business for them because it has to be.

"Sharps," said Jimmy Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Nevada, "think with their money."

It's time for me to make a confession. I thought picking unpopular teams was a matter of guts, spine, constitution. And perhaps for me, it is, because I put my picks in writing in the print edition of Pro Football Weekly and on ProFootballWeekly.com. My wallet remains closed on Sundays unless I'm headed to Starbucks.

But for professional bettors, it's not about emotion — it's about making rational decisions. That's the sense I got after talking to Vaccaro and Chris Andrews, the assistant sportsbook director at Club Cal Neva. Both know more about sports betting than I will ever know, and they know something about the psychology of sports bettors.

Andrews told me sharps aren't worried about taking a losing team and being embarrassed if matters go awry.

"If they lose by 40, so be it," Andrews said. "They're not in it for the entertainment value anyway."

Professional handicappers accept that they can't win them all, Andrews said.

"A wiseguy knows he's going to lose at least 40 percent of the bets he (makes)," he said.

It's not just sharps betting unpopular teams. Vaccaro said the Chiefs were well-backed vs. San Diego. Something else to ponder: According to Covers.com data, only three NFL teams hadn't covered at least once in the first three weeks of the season: Miami, St. Louis and San Diego. The Rams, who really have struggled early in the season, were well-supported by sharp bettors in Week One vs. Philadelphia, Vaccaro said on Sept. 30, noting that "(there) hasn't been one NFL team that has dragged us down" from a house perspective.

When can struggling teams be a good bet? Sports handicapper Kevin O'Neill tells me that his research shows that clubs that begin 0-4 and are underdogs at any point the rest of the season "historically have a solid pointspread record" and that handicappers should "look to play them when they're dogs the rest of the way." Miami, Minnesota and St. Louis fit this bill, as could Indianapolis if it loses Monday. The Vikings were installed as early  favorites vs. Arizona in Week Five, while the Rams and Dolphins have byes. However, St. Louis and Miami likely will be underdogs — and perhaps big ones — in Week Six. The Rams will be at Green Bay,  and Miami travels to play the Jets.

No hard feelings if backing popular teams remains your go-to strategy. If it works, wonderful, because winning is the name of the game.

But I think we can agree on this: the more winning strategies you have, the better.

Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/10/04/backing-struggling-teams-can-have-its-merits

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