Analysis of Week Nine consensus selections

You've seen our consensus against-the-spread selections for Week Eight. Now, here's the thought process behind those picks.

BUFFALO -1½ vs. N.Y. Jets (44)

How's this for unexpected? The Bills, who had surrendered 28 points per contest in their previous five games, shut out struggling Washington in Week Eight, sacking Redskins QB John Beck 10 times and allowing just 178 yards. Considering the marked defensive improvement in their first game post-bye, we're inclined to back the Bills here.

Consensus selection: Buffalo

NEW ORLEANS -8 vs. Tampa Bay (50½)

The Saints played an absolute clunker at St. Louis in Week Eight, but they have been much sharper at home, posting 3-0 marks straight-up and against the spread. While the Buccaneers have a winning record, they've been outscored 169-131 and have been outgained by 355 yards. The Saints figure to be ready after such an awful performance last week.

Consensus selection: New Orleans

 

Atlanta -7 vs. INDIANAPOLIS (44½)

This is an unfavorable matchup for the Colts. The Falcons have the running game needed to wear down the Indianapolis defense. Moreoever, the Colts have struggled to defend the pass. The Falcons started to regain their best form entering the bye. The Colts? They needed the bye to arrive a long time ago.

Consensus selection: Atlanta (best bet)

DALLAS -11½ vs. Seattle (44)

The Seahawks are going in the wrong direction after a promising stretch in which they knocked off the Cardinals and Giants and gave the Falcons a scare. However, consecutive losses to the Browns and Bengals highlight the Seahawks' major weakness: an inability to consistently put points on the board. The Cowboys have to like their chances to control both lines of scrimmage and notch a bounce-back win after a blowout loss at Philadelphia.

Consensus selection: Dallas

KANSAS CITY -4 vs. Miami (39½)

The Dolphins keep knocking on the door of a victory, but they continue to come up just short, and now they draw a Chiefs club that has won four straight games. From a statistical standpoint, there isn't much separating these clubs. They have each been outgained by more than 60 yards per game, and each has surrendered more points than it has scored. The main difference between the clubs, really, is an intangible one. The Chiefs have started to grind out some wins, while the Dolphins have not been able to, and at this price, we'll support the club that is in better form.

Consensus selection: Kansas City

San Francisco -3½ vs. WASHINGTON (37½)

The Redskins are struggling on offense and defense, which leaves them in a position of weakness against the 49ers, so sharp in all phases right now. The 49ers, who are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road this season — each time playing an early Sunday-afternoon game in the Eastern time zone — look simply too tough for the Redskins right now.

Consensus selection: San Francisco (best bet)

HOUSTON -11 vs. Cleveland (41)

The Browns appear in too deep against this caliber of club. The Browns may have to start third-string RB Chris Ogbonnaya with Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and Montario Hardesty (calf) on the mend. Cleveland's passing game is limited, adding to its difficulties on offense. Also, the Browns' special teams are suspect. Cleveland's redeeming quality from a pointspread perspective is its defense, but the 49ers were able to cover a nine-point spread a week ago despite not playing all that well in the second half. We'll side with the favorite.

Consensus selection: Houston

OAKLAND -8 vs. Denver (42½)

The Raiders have won and covered in the last four meetings between the clubs. One of those victories was against the Tim Tebow-led Broncos late last season, so if you're picking Denver on the element-of-surprise angle, there could be better limbs on which to stand. Considering the Raiders' recent dominance of the series and the fact QB Carson Palmer comes into the game with two full weeks to prepare, the favorite holds appeal.

Consensus selection: Oakland

TENNESSEE -3 vs. Cincinnati (42)

The Titans got a much-needed win vs. Indianapolis in Week Eight, and we like them to keep the momenum going vs. the Bengals. Cincinnati surprisingly struggled against Seattle's passing game last week, surrendering 375 gross passing yards. The Bengals pulled away late to win vs. the Seahawks, but the Titans can make Cincinnati pay if it doesn't defend the pass better.

Consensus selection: Tennessee

ARIZONA -3½ vs. St. Louis (42)

While the Cardinals couldn't hold a 24-3 lead at Baltimore last week, there are plenty of positives to take from their performance. The defense, which was on the field for 80 plays, surrendered a respectable 5.1 yards per play, an improvement over other recent games. The Rams stunned the Saints with a wonderful defensive performance and a strong running game, but more often than not, St. Louis' defense has faltered this season, whereas the Cardinals are allowing just 3.83 yards per carry.

Consensus selection: Arizona

NEW ENGLAND -8½ vs. N.Y. Giants (51)

The Patriots have gained progressively fewer yards per play in every game this season, and their point totals, from Week One on, have gone like this: 38, 35, 31, 31, 30, 20, 17. Considering the Patriots' problems stopping the pass, too, we will take the points.

Consensus selection: N.Y. Giants

Green Bay -5½ vs. SAN DIEGO (51½)

Not only do the Chargers have to contend with a short week of preparation after a Monday-night loss, they must shake off the effects of a draining, slipped-right-through-the-fingers loss to Kansas City. Oh, and the Chargers also have to contend with the NFL's most potent passing game. The Packers figure to keep rolling in what could be a high-scoring affair.

Consensus selection: Green Bay
Consensus selection: Over 51½ (best bet)

PITTSBURGH -3 vs. Baltimore (42)

The Steelers' pass defense is for real. You can say that confidently now after they made the Patriots' potent passing game look ordinary in an impressive 25-17 win. While the Ravens picked apart Pittsburgh in the first meeting between the clubs, Baltimore isn't playing as well as it did then. Its OL play looms as a concern, as does the absence of WR Lee Evans. The Steelers' defense, even with some LB injuries to deal with, should be much tougher on Baltimore this time.

Consensus selection: Pittsburgh (best bet)

PHILADELPHIA -8 vs. Chicago (47)

The Bears' defense showed signficant improvement in its last two games before the bye, allowing just 28 total points and less than five yards per play in wins vs. Minnesota and against Tampa Bay in London. With their stop unit playing much better and their offense boasting the sort of strong rushing attack that can give Philadelphia trouble, we like the Bears' chances to cover the spread.

Consensus selection: Chicago

Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/11/03/analysis-of-week-nine-consensus-selections-3

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