Thanksgiving football is an Afghan blanket, down-filled couch cushions, a pair of warm socks — a source of comfort, something to be enjoyed before or after one of the year's decadent meals.
It also has been a money-making opportunity, for those so inclined.
Hey, hey, eyebrows down, friend. This is a betting column, and the betting doesn't stop on Thanksgiving. If you are in Nevada, I assure you, the casinos will be open for business, and the sportsbooks will be more than willing to let you fill out a parlay card or two.
One sure-fire way to be alive in your parlays entering Thanksgiving afternoon in recent years has been to bet against the Lions. Detroit hasn't covered on Thanksgiving Day since 2003, when it upset Green Bay 22-14 as seven-point underdogs.
Since then, it has been all despair for Lions supporters on the fourth Thursday of November — save for the hard-boiled handicappers of the group who got all cold-and-calculating and faded the home side.
Whether you're a Lions fan or not, we all can agree that Detroit is better equipped than it has been in years to be a dangerous Thanksgiving Day foe. The Lions' electric passing game and swarming pass rush are first-rate. Of course, we also can agree that it is the Lions' rotten luck, just as they have gotten their act together after years of bumbling, to draw the powerful Packers at Ford Field on Nov. 24.
No team has played the Lions more on Thanksgiving than the Packers, and Detroit has an 11-7-1 all-time series edge. However, Green Bay has won and covered the past two matchups with ease, recording a 37-26 victory in 2007 and a 34-12 rout in '09.
Overall, the Packers have dominated this series in recent years, winning 17-of-20 games straight-up vs. Detroit since 2001. That said, the Packers, while money-line standouts in the series of late, have been good, not great, bets vs. the spread, covering in 11-of-20 games vs. the Lions in the past 10 years. Detroit covered both games vs. Green Bay last season and handed the Packers what looked to be a very costly loss last December. The Packers, who lost QB Aaron Rodgers to a concussion in the first half, fell 7-3 to the Lions, who hit their stride in the final weeks of the season, winning their last four games.
The Lions have proven that fast finish was no fluke. However, they figure to be underdogs vs. Green Bay on Thanksgiving. Bettors will be left to weigh whether the Lions' improvement, coupled with their very competitive showings against Green Bay a season ago, merits taking a shot with the underdog — or if Detroit's recent struggles on Thanksgiving will continue.
Handicappers also should be aware of a powerful recent trend for Thursday games played in the second half of the regular season: favorites have cleaned up.
Since 2006, pointspread favorites are 28-12-1 against the spread in Thursday games held in Week 10 and beyond. Of particular note to those doing advance work on the Thanksgiving card: Favorites have covered in 13-of-15 Thanksgiving games since '06, with only the Giants in '09 and the Saints in '10 failing to get the job done. Both of those clubs were road favorites, too, meaning home teams laying points have a perfect mark the past five years on Thanksgiving.
In contrast to the Lions' holiday woes, the Cowboys have covered five times in a row on Thanksgiving, succeeding as a favorite four consecutive times (2006-09) and covering the 4½-point spread as an underdog in a 30-27 loss to the Saints a season ago.
The Cowboys will host the Dolphins on Thanksgiving. The clubs last met on the holiday in 2003, with Miami winning 40-21 as three-point underdogs. Three years later, the Dolphins also proved to be a rude visitor for Detroit, notching a 27-10 win as three-point favorites.
Of perhaps greater interest to handicappers is the Dolphins' recent improved form. Miami has played hard, and it has played skillfully at times. The Cowboys, who hardly have been the most reliable club, must be on guard.
The other Thanksgiving game pits San Francisco vs. Baltimore. The 49ers, while a skilled club, have the challenge of traveling from the Pacific to the Eastern time zone on a short week of preparation. You have to go back to 1986, when the Seahawks beat the Cowboys, to find a club that has won on Thanksgiving after having to travel across two or more time zones.
Indeed, the Niners' challenges on Thanksgiving night don't simply include dealing with the Ravens' defense.
Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/11/15/some-early-thoughts-on-the-thanksgiving-slate
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pittsburgh Panthers Florida State Seminoles Miami Hurricanes Georgia Bulldogs Texas A&M Aggies
No comments:
Post a Comment