There's nothing like the final week of the NFL regular season. If you're going to handicap the card, you better bring a list of playoff scenarios, have someone with a psychology degree on speed-dial and keep a stiff drink at the ready. That's my conclusion after simply having the playoff scenarios at my disposal as I wrote this column.
Cheers, fellow handicappers, and have a healthy, safe and prosperous New Year.
On to the picks:
Pitsburgh (-5½) at Cleveland
When these teams met in October, the Browns were game in defeat, playing Pittsburgh close for the better part of three quarters even with rookie QB Colt McCoy making his first career start. However, the Steelers, with a late burst, pulled away to win 28-10. To me, the end result was telling — Pittsburgh simply can score more easily and quickly than Cleveland. The Browns gave up a pair of long passes to WR Mike Wallace, and they did not sack QB Ben Roethlisberger once.
These teams have played three times in Eric Mangini's tenure as the Browns' head coach, and Cleveland's lone victory came when its pass rush overpowered Pittsburgh, sacking Roethlisberger eight times. To score a similar upset, the Browns are going to need to get a consistent rush vs. Roethlisberger both with conventional pressures and blitzes. The problem with blitzing Roethlisberger is that if you can't bring him down, he'll find the open receiver, as he did on TD pases to Wallace and Hines Ward in the first meeting.
I don't doubt that the Browns can play the Steelers tough for a half, or perhaps three quarters once again, but Pittsburgh's talent will be too much to overcome.
Wilkening's pick: Pittsburgh
Cincinnati (+9½) at Baltimore
For the fourth consecutive week, I see the Ravens as a top play. They are showing they can win a variety of ways. Last week, it was their defense that carried the day, with their offense doing just enough.
The defense has been the difference for the Bengals in recent matchups, holding Baltimore to 14 points or less in the past three meetings — all Cincinnati wins. However, I'm not convinced the Bengals can shut down this potent, well-balanced offense yet again. And for as spectacular as the Bengals' passing game looked in Week 16, I'll side with the Ravens' strong defense, which is quite familiar with Cincinnati.
The Ravens have been strong in regular-season home finales, winning and covering five in a row. The Bengals are in better form than they were a few weeks ago, but they have little to play for, and they are traveling to play a powerful, improving team that still can win the AFC North with a win and a Pittsburgh loss.
Wilkening's pick: Baltimore
Tennessee (+10) at Indianapolis
This line looks a tad inflated to me. We know the Colts can clinch the AFC South with a win and that the Titans have nothing to play for but pride, but can Indianapolis win this game by more than 10 points? Of their last four wins, only one was by double-digits: the 10-point victory vs. Jacksonville, which saw the Jaguars cut Indianapolis' lead to three late only to give up a kickoff return on an attempted onside kick.
Obviously, the big question here is whether the Titans show up. They fell behind early at Kansas City a week ago, which forced them to get away from their running game. If they can stay close early, they could present some problems for the Colts, who have surrendered 24 points or more in 8-of-10 games, including 28 to Tennessee just three weeks ago.
Wilkening's pick: Tennessee
Minnesota (+3½) at Detroit
The Vikings' strong performance in an upset of the Eagles Tuesday night caused this line to drop. That's fine by me. The Lions, who have won three consecutive games, are finishing strongly, and I believe they can even the score with the Vikings after a 24-10 loss at Minnesota in Week Three. The Vikings could be due for a letdown after an emotional win and a short week of preparation, and their play in losses to the Giants and Bears in Weeks 14 and 15 gives me pause. I'll take the favorite.
Wilkening's pick: Detroit
Last week: 2-2
Season to date: 34-29-1
Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/12/30/week-17-handicapping-column-2
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