Sunday, November 20, 2011

Del Pilar's Digest: Fantasyland 24-hour pregame prep

Updated Nov. 19, 2011 @ 2:56 p.m. ET

The following teams are on bye; the Colts, Saints, Steelers and Texans. That means you lose the services of QBs Drew Bees and Big Ben Roethlisberger; RBs Darren Sproles, Rashard Mendenhall, Arian Foster and Ben Tate; WRs Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown; and TEs Jimmy Graham, Heath Miller and Owen Daniels. Plan accordingly as you will have some studs out this week.

Don't forget to check out Pro Football Weekly's rankings as they're proven to be the best in the industry. At PFW, we don't just take the NFL seriously; we take fantasy just as seriously. As much as you want insight, the truth is, every service, every expert, every "wannabe" fantasy analyst checks the rankings to start. When you're in a jam, head to our player rankings section for that quick answer, especially on Sunday mornings.

It's been a tough year for QB Michael Vick (ribs) and his fantasy owners. They had high hopes of elite numbers from fantasyland's best player and a fantasy championship. Instead, Vick's trying to hang on as a top-10 quarterback, but he has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Giants. Look for backup Vince Young to start as he's seen most of the reps in practice this week and Young's legs always make him a worthy fantasy consideration.

Just when you thought he was back, Falcons WR Julio Jones (hamstring) is questionable going into the weekend. He hasn't been able to practice this week. Owners should plan on seeing more of Harry Douglas (thigh). Jones has already missed two games, and the team will be on the cautious side. If you're looking for a body to play this, week, as I am, Douglas is worth consideration.

Don't look for the Eagles' top wideout this weekend as WR Jeremy Maclin (shoulder, hamstring) has not practiced and, on Saturday, was ruled out this week. Look for Jason Avant, Steve Smith and Riley Cooper to see his targets, with TE Brent Celek also getting involved. However, DeSean Jackson will probably be the biggest beneficiary this week as he looks for redemption after a P.R. nightmare last week, when the mercurial receiver was benched and the story became public.

The Bengals may be without their top wideout this weekend as WR A.J. Green (knee) is listed as doubtful and hasn't practiced this week. Considering that he didn't practice and is trying to overcome a hyperextended knee, the odds are not high he'll play. Look for WR Jerome Simpson, TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Andre Caldwell to share the targets. Not having your best target and facing the Ravens doesn't bode well for any fantasy player the Bengals field.

The Bills' offense has been inconsistent, and potentially losing WR Stevie Johnson (shoulder) wouldn't help. He's been limited at practice and he'll be a game-day decision. Johnson has a three-game average of 6.7 receptions, for 85.3 yards and one TD on 9.7 targets. Taking it back a little further, he has a six-game average of four receptions for 45.8 yards and 0.2 TDs on 6.8 targets. Those are numbers a No. 3 fantasy receiver gives you. If he can't go, look for David Nelson and Donald Jones to see targets and potentially C.J. Spiller as a wideout on a few plays.

 

Fantasy starters

Look for Lions QB Matthew Stafford (finger) to play this week, and he's been practicing with gloves.

It could be another tough week for owners of 49ers RB Frank Gore (knee). He's questionable and was limited in practice this week. He's expected to play, but how productive he'll be is another question. This could be a good time to get backup Kendall Hunter into your lineup in case we see a repeat of Week 10.

Look for Bears RB Matt Forté (shoulder) to play against the Chargers as he's practiced this week. He's always a must-start.

It's been a full week of practice for Chargers RB Ryan Mathews (groin), and he'll be good to go this week against the Bears. He makes a No. 2 fantasy back.

It's the same as usual this week for Cardinals RB Beanie Wells (knee) as he tries to work through his knee injury, something he'll do every week. Last week he went 23-62-0 rushing, with zero targets receiving after an unproductive Week Nine, and he's facing the 49ers' top-ranked rushing defense.

Players come and go in value as the season goes on, and Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (toe) has minimal value compared to a month ago. Limited in practice Friday, he should play but hasn't been productive since sustaining the toe injury and is a bench play.

How much time Cowboys RB Felix Jones (ankle) cuts into red-hot DeMarco Murray's playing time remains to be seen, but expect Jones to be a change-of-pace back.

When you're dealing with the Patriots' injury report, expect it to be a MASH unit. This week is no different, with WR Wes Welker (knee) limited in practice. He'll play and, despite a sluggish month, remains a No. 1 fantasy receiver. 

It's a full go for Giants WR Mario Manningham (knee), who was able practice this week and makes a No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Look for Seahawks WR Sidney Rice (concussion) to play, thus making him a No. 3 fantasy receiver this week. He's Tarvaris Jackson's favorite receiver, so he'll see opportunities against the Rams' defense.

While Julio Jones is likely to sit, Falcons WR Harry Douglas (thigh) will play and should start in Jones' place. He makes a flex play or bye-week fill-in.

 

Out, or consider other alternatives ...

While the Cardinals list QB Kevin Kolb (toe) as questionable, don't look for him to play after doing minimal work in practice.

After getting limited participation in practice Friday after not practicing earlier in the week, Browns RB Montario Hardesty (calf) will be a game-time decision. Against a tough Jaguars defense, even if Hardesty is active, which we doubt, Chris Ogbonnaya would probably still see most of the touches.

Who knows if Ravens WR Lee Evans (ankle) will be able to play? All we hear is that he's "closer," while being limited in practice again this week. Look for a game-day decision, but either way, Torrey Smith will see his share of snaps. 

Never making it as a complementary receiver, Chargers WR Malcom Floyd (hip) has had his season derailed by injuries. He's out this week, and Vincent Brown, who went 5-97-1 on nine targets, looks to benefit from most of those targets.

It's been a tough week for Panthers TE Jeremy Shockey (ribs) as he's listed as doubtful and not expected to play. Look for starter Greg Olsen to see an increase in targets.

Cardinals TE Todd Heap (hamstring) is a game-time decision again. Whether he plays or not, he has no fantasy value.

 

The 'B' team ...

It looks as if Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson (pectoral) could be a weekly injury note with his injury, but he's expected to start. He has no fantasy value.

Vikings QB Christian Ponder (hand) practiced without any issues this week after getting his non-throwing hand stepped on in Week 10. He has no fantasy value.

If he's ever going to do anything, Packers RB Ryan Grant (knee) has the matchup against a woeful Bucs run defense. He practiced this week after cutting his knee. If you need a body, he fills that role as an injury fill-in.

Patriots RB Kevin Faulk (knee) was limited in practice this week but is expected to play. Part of a committee, he has little value outside depth as an injury fill-in.

Illness seems to be the culprit for Bills WR David Nelson (ankle, illness) as he's been limited in practice but is probable, with all intentions to play. He has minimal value.

Look for Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin (concussion) to play this week, and he makes an injury fill-in at best against the Rams.

With diminishing returns, Titans WR Nate Washington (illness) will play with a probable listing this weekend, but he has lost much of his fantasy value. He's not worth a fantasy start, with Damian Williams having greater value as a No. 3 fantasy receiver this week.

Vikings WR Michael Jenkins was limited earlier in the week but returned to practice Friday. He will play and is an injury fill-in or bye-week replacement in larger leagues.

As a starter, Rams WR Brandon Gibson (groin) has been a fantasy disappointment but will play and start this week. He has minimal value.

Look for Browns WR Mohamed Massaquoi (concussion) to play this weekend, completely devaluing Joshua Cribbs. Neither player has much value on fantasy rosters.

The Dolphins expect TE Anthony Fasano (ankle) to play this week despite being limited in practice this week. He's a bench play this week.

Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe (hamstring) is expected to play this week but has no fantasy value.

After sizzling in training camp, he's fizzled during the season, but Rams TE Lance Kendricks (foot) should play this week. He has no fantasy value.

 

Rounding it out

Chiefs QB Matt Cassel (hand) is out for the foreseeable future, with Tyler Palko now the starter. Palko has no fantasy value at the moment.

Raiders RB Darren McFadden (foot) is out, and Michael Bush will carry the load and is a No. 1 fantasy back right now.

Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) is out. Look for Brandon Jacobs to see most of the touches, with D.J. Ware also playing a role. Jacobs makes a No. 2.

Lions RB Jahvid Best (concussion) is out again. Maurice Morris and Kevin Smith will carry the load, with Morris being a low-end No. 2 and Smith having no value right now.

Browns RB Peyton Hillis (hamstring) is out again, so expect a heavy dose of Chris Ogbonnaya. Ogbonnaya makes a flex play.

Rams RB Cadillac Williams (calf) will be out. It doesn't matter as Steven Jackson has been carrying the load, posting elite-level numbers.

Cowboys WR Miles Austin (hamstring) is out this week. Look for another week of Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and TE Jason Witten.

Raiders WR Jacoby Ford (knee) will not play, leaving more reason to get Denarius Moore into your lineup. He's red-hot.

Redskins WR Santana Moss (hand) is out again. Look for Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Armstrong and TE Fred Davis to try to gain a few fantasy points.

Another week the Rams will be without the services of WR Danario Alexander (hamstring), who's listed as doubtful. He has no fantasy value.

Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/11/19/del-pilars-digest-fantasyland-24-hour-pregame-pr-2

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