Monday, August 1, 2011

Free-agency fallout

The first week of free agency not only lived up to the massive hype — it probably exceeded it.

We saw equal doses of excitement (the Nnamdi Asomugha carpet-puller; the Patriots trading for two volatile Pro Bowlers), disappointment (the Jets losing the Nnamdi sweepstakes; the Vikings losing two cornerstones) and surprises (the Panthers spending like mad; the Cowboys not).

One Pro Bowl QB (Donovan McNabb) was traded. One (Carson Palmer) refused to show up to work. Another (Peyton Manning) received a very interesting deal with ramifications on the rest of the NFL market, as well as his team's immediate future. We saw a team (the Cardinals) pay a king's ransom for a quarterback (Kevin Kolb) with seven NFL starts under his belt.

The NFL is back, and it has wasted no time dominating the headlines.

We knew this frenzied period following the 4½-month lockout would change the league's landscape in a way we haven't seen and might not see again in a generation. What we didn't know was how bizarre this market would be, with teams adding franchise and building-block players as the rest of their rosters were out on the training-camp fields.

And there is still plenty left to figure out. And oh, by the way, Week One is mere weeks away.

In the meantime, we'll take stock of what this first week delivered. It might take a few years to really comprehend what it all means.

 

Manning's deal — and what it means

For two years, we have heard that the Colts were prepared to make QB Peyton Manning the highest-paid player in the NFL. Tom Brady, Manning's measuring stick on and off the field in so many ways, received a four-year, $72 million deal last September prior to last season, and it seemed to set the table for what Manning would receive.

Colts owner Jim Irsay and team president Bill Polian went to work from there, talking on and off with Tom Condon, Manning's agent, about numbers and years and how it would get done.

Two things everyone assumed: first, that it would get done, and second, that Manning's deal would exceed Brady's. Well, we were half right ... we think.

The five-year, $90 million deal was completed July 30 but not without some drama and after some interesting back-channel communication.

There was some concern at various points, as Manning and Condon had previously rejected an offer that would have made him the highest-paid player, on an average-per-year-basis, in the NFL. So when Irsay spoke to the media a few days prior to the contract getting done, he appeared irritated that ink had not hit paper yet. Having no doubt heard those comments, Manning then went into hurry-up mode (he is the best at the two-minute offense, after all) and made sure to let it be known he'd be willing to take less money if it meant keeping other Colts free agents and working for the betterment of the team.

And so it was done the following day. Complicating the matter was Manning's offseason neck surgery, which will force him to miss time in the preseason, but there's no doubt he'll do everything in his power to complete his 209th straight start in Week One against the Texans.

More on those contract numbers in a moment. First, it's fascinating that the APY is the same as Brady's deal: $18M per. But look deeper, and you see that Manning is still due to make an average of $23 million in the first three seasons. You have to assume that if he stays healthy — hey, the neck is a long-term concern, too — that Manning would get those final two years polished up at some point down the road and perhaps, ultimately, make more than Brady.

You also have to think that the agents for Eagles QB Michael Vick and Saints QB Drew Brees took special note of Manning's numbers. Joel Segal, who represents Vick, will look from afar. The man who represents Brees — Condon — is the one who wrote up Manning. How nice a setup is that?

 

Nnominal interest after top CBs went off market

Observers were impressed at first glance at the talent at cornerback that was set to hit the market. It was headlined by the obvious top dog, Nnamdi Asomugha, but the names that followed were no slouches.

One AFC scout said prior to the opening of free agency that he thought former Bengals CB Johnathan Joseph would be, dollar for dollar, a more sound investment than Asomugha because he's three years younger and nearly as good a cover man.

Apparently, this scout was not the only person to think this way. The day before Asomugha signed with the Eagles, the Texans realized that they would have to pay too much for him and switched gears to Joseph.

Wise move. They ended up getting him for nearly the same guaranteed money ($23.5 million to $25 million), both in five-year deals, but Asomugha admitted that he left money on the table to go to Philly, and that other teams were bidding higher. The Texans were one of those teams. It might have taken $30 million or more to get Asomugha. Talk of him demanding $18 million per season likely scared teams such as the Lions away from the get-go. In the end, his deal averages about two-thirds of that sum ($12 million per).

Both the Texans and Eagles improved their pass defenses, which were both horrible last season, by a significant measure.

But the rest of the CB market had yet to really materialize at presstime. Unresticted free agents such as Antonio Cromartie and Carlos Rogers figured to cash in relatively quickly, and though they will, they hadn't as of the final day of July.

Steelers CB Ike Taylor surveyed the market and re-signed for below-market value. At one point, he was rumored to be asking north of $10 million per year.

Richard Marshall, a second-tier corner but a good, young one, left the Panthers to take a one-year deal from the Cardinals. In most years, second-tier guys see whopping money. Teams are desperate for talented, even semi-talented cover men.

Nate Clements went from being one of the highest-paid corners in the NFL to being released and taking a deal with the Bengals for just over $5 million per year.

Josh Wilson (Redskins) and Chris Carr (Ravens), two smallish, lower-rung corners, probably got more than they were expecting. But otherwise, the CB market hasn't exactly set the world on fire.

Look back in recent history, and some of the most ill-advised contracts have gone to cornerbacks coming off big seasons, only to flop with their new teams. Perhaps clubs are smarter and more picky now.

 

From plaintiffs to pleasant?

It's an oldish story line by now, but it's one a lot of people brushed over. Two of the 11 Brady vs. the NFL plaintiffs — the two that everyone thought would make the most noise or perhaps prevent a CBA from happening — stepped aside relatively quietly and signed their free-agent tender offers.

Chargers WR Vincent Jackson missed the first 10 games last season, holding out amid a contract squabble that only looked to get uglier. And though he reportedly asked for a $10 million settlement in return for his name being used on the lawsuit, that too went away, and Jackson returned to work on a one-year franchise offer.

So also did Patriots OLG Logan Mankins, whose negotiations last season turned personal when he did the ultimate no-no in New England and crossed owner Robert Kraft with his comments. Before he even was to return to the team, the Krafts reportedly wanted a personal apology. And yet there was Mankins, in camp on time, playing on his tender.

What happened? Seriously?

Yes, both men are still likely to leave and seek their millions elsewhere on the open market next season, as will be their right. But someone got in their heads — and here's guessing it wasn't just their respective agents — and seemed to talk some sedation into each of them.

The biggest winners in the whole deal? The Chargers and Patriots, who each have Super Bowl-caliber rosters.

 

Three up, three down

Although the dust hasn't settled yet on all the moves and there are plenty of players left to make deals for, there were some teams whose actions deserve praise, and others who were unable to stop the bleeding.

First, the good:

Panthers — Let's not confuse one thing: They spent a lot of money on bringing back players who were members of last year's 2-14 campaign. But it always has been GM Marty Hurney's and owner Jerry Richardson's modus operandi to re-sign their core players and pick and choose a few outside pieces to add. They might have overpaid a bit on keeping DE Charles Johnson and RB DeAngelo Williams as they related to the market, and the PK Olindo Mare move was a bit confusing. But they convinced WR Steve Smith to stick around, got Cam Newton into camp on time, bolstered the talent at tight end (Greg Olsen might lead the team in catches) and beefed up the back end of the roster. Plus, they locked up MLB Jon Beason long term. There is talent on this team, which will not go 2-14 again.

Patriots — Even if the trades for DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco don't pan out, the Pats paid a low price for them and can cut bait anytime without much harm. But the way-too-early returns in camp suggest the Patriots acquired two hungry veterans who are dead set on proving their doubters wrong. Remember, too, the Patriots return the core of a 14-2 team, and making nice with Mankins can only help. Moreover, the Jets failed to land Asomugha, and the Dolphins — as of this writing, anyway — had not acquired a top-level quarterback. Addition by non-addition.

Eagles — Any "up" list without their name on it would be labeled as pretty silly. We will see if all of their spending will lead to a Super Bowl berth, but one thing is clear: They have addressed some key needs, and the talent level is undeniably better. DE Jason Babin was revived in Tennessee and returns to Philly a better player. DE Cullen Jenkins is exactly the big, disruptive inside force the Eagles have lacked. Asomugha is their new Bobby Taylor, a big, physical, cocky corner who can match up with 5-foot-9 burners or 6-5 jump-ball specialists, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has tremendous ball skills at the other CB spot. The team's best moves this offseason might have been the additions of OL coach Howard Mudd and DL coach Jim Washburn, and even with all the veteran players they added, they remain one of the younger teams in the NFL. But they still have issues, with a revamped offensive line, too much money at corner (bye-bye, Asante Samuel?) and a showdown looming with DeSean Jackson. Don't go picking out Super Bowl jewelry designs just yet.

And now for three teams that failed to impress:

Vikings — As anyone who watched them play the first 10 games last season can attest, losing WR Sidney Rice is a big deal. Expecting Michael Jenkins to replace him makes the loss that much bigger. Rice simply changed the way defenses played the Vikings, and the guy who might feel the loss the most — other than the quarterbacks — is RB Adrian Peterson. Goodbye, seven-man fronts. Speaking of quarterbacks, the trade for Donovan McNabb left some league folks (and fans) scratching their heads. Said one personnel director, rhetorically, "They traded a draft pick for their second choice?" He was referring to the report that Tyler Thigpen, not McNabb, was the Vikings' first option to compete with first-rounder Christian Ponder. And that was said to have upset McNabb, as he spent a day pondering whether he wanted to even go to Minnesota. Those who have been around McNabb said he has zero interest in being a mentor, too, so Ponder will be leaning on the coaches for most of his guidance. Those moves, plus the not-unexpected loss of DE Ray Edwards, really limit the upside for this team.

Bengals — Always interesting, eh? The Carson Palmer saga isn't ending anytime soon. He has dug in his heels, and owner Mike Brown has dug in his heels, forcing an already lame-duck coach in Marvin Lewis to adjust on the fly. Sure, they spent the duration of the lockout fully prepared to hear that Palmer still didn't want to play there, and the drafting of Andy Dalton at least partially proves that. But Brown sounded like a jilted lover in his introductory press conference to discuss the matter. Saying that Palmer did not "honor his commitment" to the Bengals, the owner was not about to "reward him" with a trade. Someone needs to remind Brown about owners (including Brown himself, countless times over the years) repeatedly not honoring contracts by terminating high-priced veterans, but that is another issue. Bruce Gradkowski? The Bengals had better hope Dalton is a quick study. Oh, and losing Joseph and replacing him with Clements is bound to disappoint. Joseph is four years younger and the far better player at this stage.

Bears — Some will laud their low-risk, potentially high-reward moves to pick up Amobi Okoye and Vernon Gholston, and perhaps those players will be revived in 4-3 defenses that are best-suited to fit their skills. But we have to assume neither one will do all that much. What we do know is that allowing C Olin Kreutz to walk takes a giant leader out of the Bears' locker room. The round of head-butting, disputing over less than $1 million, never should have happened. Replacing him with either Roberto Garza, who hasn't snapped a ball in a game since college, or Chris Spencer, a flameout in Seattle, is simply not close to an upgrade — or even a push, for that matter. Neither is trading TE Greg Olsen for a third-round pick and replacing him with WR Roy Williams. Even if Mike Martz is not a big fan of tight ends or if Williams had his best season under Martz in 2006, it's a bad swap. Olsen is just coming into his prime, right as Williams has regressed, fading to the margins in the Cowboys' high-powered passing attack the past two seasons. The Bears also took some hits with special-teams personnel, too, something they seldom allow to happen. It's looking more difficult for them to repeat last season's success with each passing day.

 

Trades alter the market

We have been talking about Kevin Kolb being traded to the Cardinals ever since PFW broke the news that there was a trade in place on the day the lockout was temporarily lifted during the draft. The terms changed, but the Eagles got two big chips — a second-round pick and a potential starting cornerback in Rodgers-Cromartie — for a quarterback with about half a season's worth of regular-season NFL action.

The Cardinals probably gained the most, seeing as how their QB play was downright putrid last season. The biggest beneficiary, clearly, would be WR Larry Fitzgerald, who played at a very high level last season despite being held to three TD receptions.

That the Redskins were able to trade both McNabb and Haynesworth is impressive, and the fact that they essentially received pennies on the dollar is somewhat irrelevant. Many league sources felt neither player was worth dealing for, and yet the Redskins picked up draft picks that will help down the road.

Reggie Bush (to Miami), Ochocinco and Olsen also were interesting additions and subtractions. All three could end up bolstering their teams' offenses. Now that NFL general managers have mastered the player trade, something they generally avoided for years, it has altered the NFL landscape a great deal.

 

Some sleepers to watch

Most of the big-name players have been addressed in this space, but in the wake of the wild action, a few signings fell under the radar. Here are a few who could surprise:

Saints RB Darren Sproles — He does more than Bush (including being a great blitz picker-upper) and has better rushing, receiving and punt-return averages lifetime. The Saints quietly feel like they upgraded themselves.

Lions LB Stephen Tulloch — The market was quiet for him, but the team now has three starting linebackers, including Tulloch, who can lay the wood. His signing moves DeAndre Levy outside, where he might be better.

Bills QB-WR-RS Brad Smith — Check the Buffalo roster and, yes, they list him as a QB. He also will return kicks (where he is dangerous) and run routes, but Chan Gailey sees some Kordell Stewart in Smith. The Bills' gain is the Jets' loss.

Jaguars LB Paul Posluszny — Doling out big bucks to a linebacker is often risky business, but he's 26, hard-hitting, smart and exactly what this unit needed: a leader. He'll lead the team in tackles and be its inspirational model for other defenders.

Source: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/08/01/free-agency-fallout

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